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From the Wall Street Journal.
Can Mrs. Clinton Lose?
February 8, 2008
If Hillary Clinton loses, does she know how to lose? What will that be, if she loses? Will she just say, "I concede" and go on vacation at a friend's house on an island, and then go back to the Senate and wait?
Is it possible she could be so normal? Politicians lose battles, it's part of what they do, win and lose. But she does not know how to lose. Can she lose with grace? But she does grace the way George W. Bush does nuance.
She often talks about how tough she is. She has fought "the Republican attack machine" that has tried to "stop" her, "end" her, and she knows "how to fight them." She is preoccupied to an unusual degree with toughness. A man so preoccupied would seem weak. But a woman obsessed with how tough she is just may be lethal.
Does her sense of toughness mean that every battle in which she engages must be fought tooth and claw, door to door? Can she recognize the line between burly combat and destructive, never-say-die warfare? I wonder if she is thinking: What will it mean if I win ugly? What if I lose ugly? What will be the implications for my future, the party's future? What will black America, having seen what we did in South Carolina, think forever of me and the party if I do low things to stop this guy on the way to victory? Can I stop, see the lay of the land, imitate grace, withdraw, wait, come back with a roar down the road? Life is long. I am not old. Or is that a reverie she could never have? What does it mean if she could never have it?
We know she is smart. Is she wise? If it comes to it, down the road, can she give a nice speech, thank her supporters, wish Barack Obama well, and vow to campaign for him?
It either gets very ugly now, or we will see unanticipated--and I suspect professionally saving--grace.
I ruminate in this way because something is happening. Mrs. Clinton is losing this thing. It's not one big primary, it's a rolling loss, a daily one, an inch-by-inch deflation. The trends and indices are not in her favor. She is having trouble raising big money, she's funding her campaign with her own wealth, her moral standing within her own party and among her own followers has been dragged down, and the legacy of Clintonism tarnished by what Bill Clinton did in South Carolina. Unfavorable primaries lie ahead. She doesn't have the excitement, the great whoosh of feeling that accompanies a winning campaign. The guy from Chicago who was unknown a year ago continues to gain purchase, to move forward. For a soft little innocent, he's played a tough and knowing inside/outside game.
The day she admitted she'd written herself a check for $5 million, Obama's people crowed they'd just raised $3 million. But then his staff is happy. They're all getting paid.
Political professionals are leery of saying, publicly, that she is losing, because they said it before New Hampshire and turned out to be wrong. Some of them signaled their personal weariness with Clintonism at that time, and fear now, as they report, to look as if they are carrying an agenda. One part of the Clinton mystique maintains: Deep down journalists think she's a political Rasputin who will not be dispatched. Prince Yusupov served him cupcakes laced with cyanide, emptied a revolver, clubbed him, tied him up and threw him in a frozen river. When he floated to the surface they found he'd tried to claw his way from under the ice. That is how reporters see Hillary.
And that is a grim and over-the-top analogy, which I must withdraw. What I really mean is they see her as the Glenn Close character in "Fatal Attraction": "I won't be ignored, Dan!"
* * *
Mr. Obama's achievement on Super Tuesday was solid and reinforced trend lines. The popular vote was a draw, the delegate count a rough draw, but he won 13 states, and when you look at the map he captured the middle of the country from Illinois straight across to Idaho, with a second band, in the northern Midwest, of Minnesota and North Dakota. He won Missouri and Connecticut, in Mrs. Clinton's backyard. He won the Democrats of the red states.
On the wires Wednesday her staff was all but conceding she is not going to win the next primaries. Her superdelegates are coming under pressure that is about to become unrelenting. It was easy for party hacks to cleave to Mrs Clinton when she was inevitable. Now Mr. Obama's people are reportedly calling them saying, Your state voted for me and so did your congressional district. Are you going to jeopardize your career and buck the wishes of the people back home?
Mrs. Clinton is stoking the idea that Mr. Obama is too soft to withstand the dread Republican attack machine. (I nod in tribute to all Democrats who have succeeded in removing the phrase "Republican and Democratic attack machines" from the political lexicon. Both parties have them.) But Mr. Obama will not be easy for Republicans to attack. He will be hard to get at, hard to address. There are many reasons, but a primary one is that the fact of his race will freeze them. No one, no candidate, no party, no heavy-breathing consultant, will want to cross any line--lines that have never been drawn, that are sure to be shifting and not always visible--in approaching the first major-party African-American nominee for president of the United States.
* * *
He is the brilliant young black man as American dream. No consultant, no matter how opportunistic and hungry, will think it easy--or professionally desirable--to take him down in a low manner. If anything, they've learned from the Clintons in South Carolina what that gets you. (I add that yes, there are always freelance mental cases, who exist on both sides and are empowered by modern technology. They'll make their YouTubes. But the mad are ever with us, and this year their work will likely stay subterranean.)
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With Mr. Obama the campaign will be about issues. "He'll raise your taxes." He will, and I suspect Americans may vote for him anyway. But the race won't go low.
Mrs. Clinton would be easier for Republicans. With her cavalcade of scandals, they'd be delighted to go at her. They'd get medals for it. Consultants would get rich on it.
The Democrats have it exactly wrong. Hillary is the easier candidate, Mr. Obama the tougher. Hillary brings negative; it's fair to hit her back with negative. Mr. Obama brings hope, and speaks of a better way. He's not Bambi, he's bulletproof.
The biggest problem for the Republicans will be that no matter what they say that is not issue oriented--"He's too young, he's never run anything, he's not fully baked"--the mainstream media will tag them as dealing in racial overtones, or undertones. You can bet on this. Go to the bank on it.
The Democrats continue not to recognize what they have in this guy. Believe me, Republican professionals know. They can tell.
27 comments:
PEGGY NOONAN sure hates Hillary. She's calling her evil....yet she is evil enough to say - she should just be nice and step away. Why didnt you write Obama may be should step away to help unite the democratic party? Being a writer you have to be careful what you write
Yeah, Peggy, one suspects you just plain hate Hillary and you've got an axe to grind. No substance in your commentary so... It's okay to just come out and say you don't like her. Just don't posture and pretend there are other loftier reasons. Otherwise, you end up sounding like any old politician.
what an absolute nutcase, i have never witnessed such intense hatred from someone who is supposed to be a professional. but, this is true drible from someone who has fawned over the bushies like a whore in heat.
keep on writing peggy, every woman in america, including the republican women will vote for her in droves, and we can thank you!!
There's nothing in Peggy Noonan's article that suggests she "hates" Hillary Clinton. She's merely commenting on what's become blatantly obvious: Hillary is losing. And wondering (as so many people are) how she'll finally leave the stage.
Peggy seems to have an agenda but I think her substance is spot on. The inevitable candidate isn't looking so certain these days.
I have never voted democrat or contributed $ to a campaign. I did both for Barack. His ability to engage folks like me and get us to believe and hope in the process again is contagious. If they don't give me the nomination, I will vote for McCain who is a moderate and will cross party lines to do the right thing. With Hillary we would get Bill running around like a loose cannon while she tilts windmills 'battling' the 'republican attack machine'. More gridlock which is exactly what we don't need.
Who is this Noonan person or Nowoman Person? Boy, she is an anti-Hillary of the first magnitude, and the worst part is she is masquerading as a "professional" detached commentator. Her hatred of the Clintons is palpable. Stop this hypocrisy in the media. Come clean Ms. Noonan and declare yourself. Maybe you'll get more respect, but your credibility is definitely shot. Do us a favor and save your smooth velvety thoughts to yourself.
Noonan not only hates Hillary and the Clintons, but she is self hating as well. Classic projection stuff. Send this Maria von Krapp to the nunnery nuthouse.
This Noonan column is not one of hate, but your commenters for the most part seem to be. All you have to do is use the phrase "hates Hillary" and the Clinton backers pile on, most of them with so much venom it feels dangerous to join them.
The two anonymous commenters seem to have a little better reading comprehension than those trying to defend Hillary against some imagined wrong. Peggy Noonan, Reagan's principle speechwriter, may be a lot of things, but "nutcase" is not one of them.
Regarding this comment:
Mrs. Clinton would be easier for Republicans. With her cavalcade of scandals, they'd be delighted to go at her. They'd get medals for it. Consultants would get rich on it.
Is it about scandals, or is it about the fact that she is a woman? If Mrs. Clinton were black, could they get away with it.
By the way, I am not a Clinton supporter.
The media favors Obama and anti-clinton. Perhaps everybody knows she is capable, strong, decisive and the material for president. Yet they rather risk America in the hands of the weaker one. Are we comfortable enough to tell the world that this guy represents us, comfortable enough to have him clean up the mess? This guy has no track records of getting things done. People love this guy just because he is a good public speaker and inspirational - we are in the process of choosing an America President, not America idol.
As an over 40 white professional married woman I have to ask - why do you think so many of us dislike Hillary? Peggy Noonan touches on all the reasons why. She is not one of us... and a lot of us women know that. I know a woman can run the country, I'll wait until an honest one comes along.
Ms Noonan's dislike of the Clintons overshadows her journalistic integrity. I feel disgusted by the overwhelmingly negative way Hillary Clinton gets treated by the media. I have never contributed to a campaign before, I have done for Hillary. She is the best Presidential material in the current race. If she is not the democratic nominee I will vote for Mccain, who has shown he can rise above the party to do the right thing, rather than see the country go further downhill in the hands of a President who has no administrative or foreign policy experience and has bulldozed his way through with empty rhetoric.
I sincerely hope and pray that Hillary will win. We don't need any Black American as President. The Black race has been recognized far to much and has complained more than any other race. They outnumber players on every sports team as if they were the only ones that know how to play.
With Obama in charge, I can see just where he would go.
No way will I vote for Obama. That's all we need is to have a Black man in as president. We have recognized the Black race more than they deserve. If anyone needs recognizing, it's our own Native Americans.Black sportsman out number every other race. With Obama in there we may as well forget about the whites.
Wowsers, the Clintonistas get touchy when somebody suggests that her election may not be inevitable - for some very compelling reasons.
For the record, I agree with the posters who believe that Mrs. Clinton is ideal Presidential material - She could very well be the inevitable result of the Progressive movement in America, the spiritual heir to Woodrow Wilson. She certainly has enough in common with that great intellectual scoundrel and social engineer of early 20th century American politics.
Which is why, given a choice between the two, Mr. Obamba absolutely and in every possible way is far more attractive than Mrs. Clinton.
I wish Peggy Noonan was wrong about Senator Clinton. But as a 45 year old, Ivy League educated white man, I intend to vote for Senator Obama in the upcoming Maryland primary because I've reached the same conclusions on Hillary as did Noonan. I don't know whether Noonan hates Hillary or not, but she has guts to say publicly what a lot of white Democrats and Republican alike are saying privately, and I should know. Many of my friends and colleagues think I'm going to vote for Clinton. Unfortunately, I don't the guts of Noonan to tell them openly that I'll vote for Barack. I have three children who seem politically atoned even though the oldest won't be eligible to vote for another couple of years ... yet, they all seem inspired by Barack in the same way people who grew up in the 60's say they were inspired by JFK. This election is as much about the future of my children as it is about the future of America. If my children could vote today, they'll vote for Obama. But since they can't, I'm voting for them. This Hawaiian-born son of a white Kansas woman and a black Kenyan man, who went to all the right schools and made all the right moves while in school and after leaving school has America written all over him. I wish Hillary well, but Barack gets my vote. If she gets the nomination, McCain gets my vote in November!
Who is Peggy Noonan - never heard of her (who cares what she has to say), of course I never heard of Obama before the presidential campaign. WHO IS HILLARY CLINTON...love or hate her every red blooded American knows who Hillary Rodham Clinton is.
People seem to forget Hillary Clinton has the advantage; everybody knows about the so called Clinton scandals-old news and who cares... she weathered that storm long ago. What harm can the Republican Party do to Hillary Clinton? They should be worried about what questions and scandal's may or may not arise and the American people will need answer's. Look whose backing Obama (Kennedy Clan) talk about scandals. HELLO!
Is this what our country has come to who can weather the storm of mudslinging scandals? No what matters is who is qualified for the "JOB", Hillary Rodham Clinton. The other question at hand is will "Man" our male population ever allow a Woman to be President of the United States of America. I'm sure the possibility of a woman running our country scares the heck out of the male population especially when they’re up against Hillary Rodham Clinton. What if she accomplished more than any of her previous predecessor's? How would the American male population overcome it took a woman to do the job and succeed or compete in the most prestige position ever held in our country. Wake up America we need a strong leader. Who cares about sex, color, scandals, and skeletons in the closet, all the trash and mudslinging? The future of our country is what matters; Hillary Rodham Clinton is the only candidate capable of succeeding and accomplishing the job as our elected President of the United States of America.
I rest my case man cannot handle the thought of a woman President especially the rich Ivy League educated white man. What a blow to their manhood.
And it is a sign of your backward, ignorant bigotry to assume that the only reason a man wouldn't vote for Hillary is because she is a woman.
It amuses me to watch Clintonistas declare that Mrs. Clinton's gender is not what her critics should be considering, and then dismiss questions about her policies and her character as being fuels by sexism. As if to imply that only a sexist bigot would refuse to vote for Hillary -- there can be no other valid reason for not voting for her. It smacks not only of ideological arrogance, but also of "poor little me" politics (like Mrs. Clinton's own "vast right-wing conspiracy" nonsense).
It should be embarrassing to you to behave in this manner, but it is amusing to me, personally, so of course go right ahead and continue.
Yes, there is freedom of speech and the press but Peggy, I expected professionalism from you and not sarcastic dribble.
Like most Americans, I've become so weary of the current Administration and how low it's sunk our country. I read, watch and listen to the candidates in hope of finding the one that will restore our country, regardless of political party.
Obama is a gentleman, a great motivational speaker. However, I find no substance in his speeches.
Yes, I do go for experience and hopefully will be able to vote for Hillary.
Are these the three worst things you can say about any woman: She can't be stopped, she wants to harm your family, and worst of all, she has NO GRACE?
Peggy, maybe some pilates classes and a self-esteem for women course could help you?
I like to read good commentaries but Noonan is too abusive. Please can't you just state your opinion or perceived facts without all the venom?
Obama is a good speaker with lots of charisma. I want to know the president can actually do the job of running the whole country and be respected by our enemies. We can still have pep rallies with Obama and inspire the masses around a good and capable president. HE is not ready for all that responsility and neither is his family wanting all this new life-style as his wife said.
Let's turn this thing on its head. Obviously there are a lot of man-haters out there, and not a few Obama-haters who seem compelled to post comments here!
I agree with John C. I support Obama and would find it very difficult to vote for Hillary since she is so divisive. I have read both of Obama's books and am amazed by his insight and common sense regarding the important issues facing us today. He has been almost prescient in his ability to identify problems before they become news - for instance, he has spoken specifially for months about our armed forces' inability to react to new military conflicts throughout the world since so many of the troops are preoccupied in Iraq -- and yesterday a news report from the Pentagon discussed a concern about that very issue.
I am one of his supporters that sends him $50 to $100 dollars on a regular basis now, several times a week, and I shall continue to do so until he wins the nomination. It is money well spent since Obama is a transformational figure in the tradition of John F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King that we see only once in several generations!
What is Peggy Noonan talking about? Who is Peggy Noonan? Is Peggy Noonan good for the country? Is Peggy Noonan's writings contribute to the good of the country? Or is Peggy Noonan one of your cheap political pundits who thinks she has figured out everyone and everything. Peggy Noonan is so irrelevant. Spare us.
SO THE ULTRAHUMANITE SAID.
And it is a sign of your backward, ignorant bigotry to assume that the only reason a man wouldn't vote for Hillary is because she is a woman.
Your calling me backward when you support someone because of their looks. Called me a man hater read your comments looks like its the other way, you seem to come off as a woman hater. With your comments about Clinton and Obama's apperance.
It will be a sad day when the people of the USA elect a man into the Oval Office because of his looks or they think his speaches are cool and go back to the 60's.
Get real who cares about your poster boy we are talking about the President of the United States. All you can do is call people you do not know names and look at poster boards. HELLO!!
I guess looks and words will be what makes our country run. GOD help us.
OK....Enough of this!!
Some of the commentary on this post has me picturing red faces, spittle flying and well, in simple terms, a general and pervasive lack of civility.
Why can't we all just get along?
YES, WE CAN!
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